##### Purpose

To investigate conditional probability in the context of the game Yahtzee.

##### Year 9
• List all outcomes for two-step chance experiments, both with and without replacement using tree diagrams or arrays. Assign probabilities to outcomes and determine probabilities for events (ACMSP225)
• Calculate relative frequencies from given or collected data to estimate probabilities of events involving ‘and’ or ‘or’ (ACMSP226)
##### Year 10
• Describe the results of two- and three-step chance experiments, both with and without replacements, assign probabilities to outcomes and determine probabilities of events. Investigate the concept of independence. (ACMSP246)
• Use the language of ‘if ….then, ‘given’, ‘of’, ‘knowing that’ to investigate conditional statements and identify common mistakes in interpreting such language. (ACMSP247)

##### At the end of this lesson students should be able to answer the following questions
• What do the words ‘independent’ and ‘dependent’ mean in relation to probability?
• What is the meaning of ‘conditional’ in relation to probability?
• Can you describe events in terms of ‘and’ and ‘or’? How does this help you when calculating probabilities?
• How could you change the rules to make it easier?
• How could you calculate the probabilities of other desired outcomes in the game?
• Does calculating these probabilities change the way you would play the game/help you with strategies?
• What strategies wold you use when playing the game?